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HomeMy WebLinkAbout2012-04-19 MinutesLioneld Jordan Chairman Sondra E. smith Treasurer Fave e Eldon Roberts Secretary/Retired Position 1 ARKANSAS Policemen's Pension and Relief Fund Board of Trustees Meeting Agenda April 19, 2012 Policemen's Pension and Relief Fund Board of Trustees Meeting Minutes April 19, 2012 Page 1 of 13 Jerry Friend Retired Position 2 Tim Helder Retired Position 3 Melvin Stanley Retired Position 4 Frank Johnson Retired Position 5 A meeting of the Fayetteville Policemen's Pension and Relief Fund Board of Trustees was held on April 19, 2012 at 3:00 PM in Room 326 of the City Administration Building located at 113 West Mountain Street, Fayetteville, Arkansas. Mayor Jordan called the meeting to order. PRESENT: Eldon Roberts, Melvin Stanley, Tim Helder, Jerry Friend, Mayor Jordan, Kit Williams, City Attorney, Paul Becker, Finance and Internal Services Director, Sondra Smith, City Clerk, Lisa Branson, Deputy City Clerk, Trish Leach, Accounting, Elaine Longer and Kim Cooper, Longer Investments. ABSENT: Frank Johnson Approval of the Minutes: Approval of the January 19, 2012 meeting minutes Tim Helder moved to approve the January 19, 2012 Policemen's Pension and Relief Fund Board of Trustees meeting minutes. Jerry Friend seconded the motion. Upon roll call the motion passed 6-0. Frank Johnson was absent. Pension List Changes: None Approval of the Pension List: Approval of the May. June and July 2012 pension lists Tim Helder moved to approve the May, June and July 2012 pension lists. Eldon Roberts seconded the motion. Upon roll call the motion passed 6-0. Frank Johnson was absent. New Business: Local pension fund report to the Council (Mayor comments) Policemen's Pension and Relief Fund Board of Trustees Meeting Minutes April 19, 2012 Page 2 of 13 A copy was given to the Board Mayor Jordan: Do you want me to read those again? Tim Helder: I would just as soon you didn't. Mayor Jordan: Frank, wanted to know what my comments were. I don't know what else to say other than what I've already said. Sondra Smith: At the last meeting the Mayor wasn't here and Frank requested that be back on the agenda for the Mayor's comments. Jerry Friend: He can get a copy and read them. Mayor Jordan: Would you like for me to add something? Kit Williams: He talks mainly about the Fire Pension fund. Sondra Smith: The video is online of that City Council meeting. You can listen to every comment that was said at that City Council meeting. Mayor Jordan: I certainly encourage you to do that. Tim Helder: It says on the report there is currently 44 police and 57 fire retirees, is that reversed? Don't we have more than 44? Eldon Roberts: If you count spouses. Kit Williams: You should be counted as one unit. You don't have double pensions you only get half. Paul Becker: Trish, does that sound correct? Sondra Smith: I can look it up because we just calculated that for the elections. Tim Helder: I just thought we had more. Trish Leach: Are you thinking you have more than fire? I thought it was 46 police. Tim Helder: It just sounded low to me. Paul Becker: I verified it at the time. I could have transposed it incorrectly. Sondra Smith: We are showing a total of 47 on the plan, 31 retirees, 12 spouses and four that are drawing for QDRO. Policemen's Pension and Relief Fund Board of Trustees Meeting Minutes April 19, 2012 Page 3 of 13 Kit Williams: The four that are drawing by QDRO are matched up with the person that is still alive and drawing a pension. They shouldn't be counted twice. Forty four is correct, Paul is right. Sondra Smith: It would be 43 because there are a total of 47 minus the four QDRO. Copy of January 3, 2012 City Council minutes (Local pension fund report) A copy was given to the Board Sondra Smith: That's a copy of the minutes and the comments that were made by the Council. Copy of State law regarding the report to the Council (24-11-412) A copy was given to the Board Revenue & expense report A copy was given to the Board Sondra Smith: That's the report that Toni in Accounting does. It's very good information for you to have. Jerry Friend: I'm glad its there. I don't have any questions on it. Eldon Roberts: Paul goes to those meetings in Little Rock and I've also been going to them the last couple years. At this meeting it came up about the insurance turnback money. They've been kicking that around ever since it was brought into existence, changing it and moving it into different formulas for different people. Did you understand that we are not going to get anything from this in a couple years, is that right? We are going to be reduced to zero. Paul Becker: The premium tax coming into Fayetteville? Eldon Roberts: Yes. Paul Becker: No, we won't be reduced to zero. The distributions are changing. This didn't help us much. It's all going to depend on how much is left to help those plans that are in trouble. It shifted more money here into the Fire Pension plan than the Police Pension plan because the Fire Pension plan was worse. Eldon Roberts: It shifted more money from the police into the fire. Paul Becker: That's correct. Eldon Roberts: Instead of shifting more money into the police and fire both it only shifted more money into the fire from the police. Policemen's Pension and Relief Fund Board of Trustees Meeting Minutes April 19, 2012 Page 4 of 13 Paul Becker: They are getting more and you are getting less. That's correct. Really what this is all about is the redistribution of the premium tax. What they were discussing is many of these municipalities, who are not paying as much as we were to fund the plans, now have to pay more. The reality of that is hitting so don't be surprised to see some more legislation. I think the bottom line is the premium tax issue is not going to solve anybody's problem. There is not enough money there. The largest amount went to Little Rock. Everybody else is paying more and Little Rock is getting more. If the guarantee fund kicks in and we get a little more depending on what's left after they make the primary distributions it will help us a little but the primary group that is going to get more is Little Rock because they are in worse shape of anybody. The premium tax that people keep talking about is not going to save the problems of the old pension plans. There is just not enough there. Eldon Roberts: I thought I understood that in two or three years we were going to be reduced to zero. Paul Becker: No. Eldon Roberts: But the police are going to receive less. Paul Becker: The police are going to receive less this year than they did last year. That's correct. Eldon Roberts: I think I stated in the last minutes my analogy is they're taken from a D minus plan and helping an F plan. They are just helping us get to F quicker. Paul Becker: Before it didn't take into consideration the plan. When you take into consideration the plan, these plans that are in worse conditions because of decisions made, are now going to gain a bit. Those are the major under funded plans. The amounts we are talking about here are not going to save a plan. Kit Williams: You're still in much better shape than the Fire Pension plan. Melvin Stanley: We would be in a whole lot better shape if we had that little bit of extra money that the Fire Department is getting. Paul Becker: You would be a little bit better but we are not talking about that much. We are talking $20,000 to $25,000. Compared to the conditions that all of these plans are in those are minimal. Everybody who is focusing on this, this is not going to be the savior to anybody. Everybody keeps focusing on premium tax or redistributing it. They can redistribute the premium tax, they can get more from the state but that is not going to solve the conditions of these plans long term. You've already heard what she has to say about her confidence in long term earnings. So there are some issues out there. 2012 Elections: Jerry Friend and Frank Johnson are up for election. Policemen's Pension and Relief Fund Board of Trustees Meeting Minutes April 19, 2012 Page 5 of 13 Sondra Smith: Lisa got the ballots ready. They went out this week so you should be receiving your ballot in the mail. We talked about opening the ballots at a pension meeting, do you still want us to do that? Jerry Friend: I don't think I ever want you to do that. Kit Williams: I thought that was the fire that wanted to do that. Mayor Jordan: We are just giving you all the same option. Eldon Roberts: I don't see any need in doing that. Adrian Cooper $200 death benefit check - death certificate was received Sondra Smith: We finally received a death certificate from his daughter-in-law so I went ahead and mailed the $200 check. Discussion Items: LOPFI No discussion. Longer Investments: Elaine Longer: We have had a good start to the year. We have some concerns coming up as we face the rest of the year. The first page of your report is the portfolio appraisal as of March 31st, the first quarter common stocks are 49% of total. We still don't have international in the portfolio we left at the early part of last year. Believing that these high dividend paying domestic multi -national blue chip companies are probably the best place to be in the world right now, we've adhered to a high dividend stock part of the portfolio of mostly US originated. You have other income assets which technically are stocks but they have a combined yield of 5.2% which is higher than what we can get in a fixed income market. That is 8.6% of total portfolio and 49% in common stocks. The dividend yield on your common stocks is 3.92% that compares to a 1.9% on the ten year treasury. You have double the yield on the ten year treasury just in your common stocks but if you take the two together you are still over the 50% common stocks. Jerry Friend moved to approve the equity overage. Tim Helder seconded the motion. Upon roll call the motion passed 6-0. Frank Johnson was absent. The next category is mutual funds fixed income. One of the funds that you own is the Barclay's 20 year Treasury bond fund. We use this bond fund in the place of the actual Treasury bond Policemen's Pension and Relief Fund Board of Trustees Meeting Minutes April 19, 2012 Page 6 of 13 because you have a higher yield than you would have in a 20 year bond but also we can control the down side risk by using stocks on that. It's an exchange traded fund which means it trades on the exchanges. An example of the volatility last year at one point in time this bond fund was trading at 122 a share and, as interest rates rose in the first quarter on the prospect of a better economic growth and a little bit of the sensation of the worries of Europe, domestic interest rates rose in the ten to thirty year level and the price of that fund fell to 109.5. Interest rate sensitivity on bond prices creates the price volatility. Since then we have an increase in the worries about the European situation in particular, Spain and we have had a weak unemployment number so this bond fund is back up to 117.5 today. There is still a lot of volatility in the bond market but we do have a lot of volatility and a lot of risk on fixed income side just in the straight treasury bonds. We watch this very closely and that is why you have a bond fund. The next page you have a seven to ten year treasury fund which we hold that sort of as a cash equivalent because it's convertible to cash for us very easily. In the mean time we can earn 2.4% instead of zero in the money market fund. You have the corporate investment grade bond fund which we paid 106 for and it's trading a 115.6 so the yield is a 4.6% on investment grade corporate. That total part of your portfolio which is mutual funds that are fixed income funds is 18% of total. It gives you a yield of about 4.1%. The next category is the preferred debt. You have GE Preferred, our AT&T Preferred was called. We hated to let that go it was 6.5% coupon but that yields 6.27% and then you still have the treasuries which were purchased at much lower rates, if you look at the 5 1/8 treasury due in 2016, we purchased that at par. To give you an idea of the volatility of prices of bonds relative to changes in interest rates you can see the price of the bond has gone up to 117 because interest rates have declined since we purchased the bond. Treasuries still make up 14% of your portfolio to yield 4.05% but we can't get anywhere close to that in treasuries at this point so we just hold those but that's what your actual income yield is that was purchased at book value. You still hold an agency with a 6 1/8 coupon that doesn't mature until 2015 and that one is non callable. The income part of the portfolio is very stable and you do have a lot of what we call "call risk." The GE's might be called like AT&T was called and if that is the case that is only 3% of the portfolio that we have to reinvest at lower interest rates. The total is $8,091,000 and the over all income yield on the portfolio even with approximately a 58% growth component is 4.07%. You have a higher yield but a factor twice as high as the current ten year on the portfolio that still has a very good growth component. That's because we have been emphasizing the longer growth, we want that high dividend income to protect the value of the portfolio. The next page shows an April 16th update. Not much has changed in term of the weightings, 49% stocks and 3.84% dividend yield. Page five shows we have realized gains of about $63,000, income year to date of about $59,000. Page six shows the breakdown of the bond portfolio. We are looking at the average yield to maturity and the average maturity. The year to maturity on the bonds in the portfolio is 4.4% with an average maturity of just 5.6 years. The comparable five year treasury right now is trading at 0.85%. You have a much higher yield than what a comparable five year treasury Policemen's Pension and Relief Fund Board of Trustees Meeting Minutes April 19, 2012 Page 7 of 13 would give you but you don't have anymore price risk than in the five year. If you look at the maturity within five years 30% of the bonds mature. Anything that's maturing within five years to us is as good as cash. If interest rates do increase we have got plenty flexibility in the portfolio to be able to roll forward ahead of maturity date to take advantage of that. We don't have much price risk in the portfolio because the weighted average maturity is so modest at 5.5 years. That is what we have been moving all of our clients towards. You don't want to give up income but we are trying to satisfy as much of the income needs as we can with the high dividend paying stocks that pay so much more than the bonds do at this point. If we get any kind of traction in the economy and we start to see economic growth pick up those bonds have price risk in terns of some of that price appreciation that we've had the past couple of years as interest rates have declined would be given up if interest rates start to go higher. That is why we are being pretty conservative on the bond side as well as the stock side. The next page shows performance. The important thing is that you are still compounding at greater than 6% actuary return assumption which has been in effect since 1990. I think its lower now by 5% isn't it? Paul Becker: Yes, 5%. Elaine Longer: But you are still compounding at 6.3% compound annual. Last years equity return in our high dividend stocks was higher than the market at 5.4%. The market was flat last year at minus point one on the S&P 500. This year the high dividend stocks are trailing performance a little bit but the combined total of the two years together is still about equal to the S&P 500. I think as we move forward into the year end we have a number of concerns that are coming forward that we will talk about that lead us to believe that we are still not out of the woods as far as going out there and trying to take a more aggressive stance. The total return last year was 5.2% with bonds returning 9.4%, how did bonds return 9.4% is the combination of that 4.4% income plus 5% capital appreciation or price appreciation because of declining rates. You will see this year bonds are down 0.8, you still earn the income on the bond but the price fluctuation has been to the down side the first quarter as interest rates have increased, the compound annual return on stocks 5.4% from inception, 5.9% on bonds and 6.3% over all. The next page shows distributions year to date. Contributions, there was a class action law suit for $7.63. I can't tell you how many of these things we have to file on a regular basis and then you get $7.00 back and the distributions are $273,000 year to date. The next page shows the beginning value. The assets that we starting managing in 1990 of $1.35 million, the additions, the contributions that have been made and the transfer of securities less distributions inception to date which would have been $8.98 million. The components of return have been net income and realized plus unrealized gains so that your total investment return has been $7.864 million. That is slightly less than the distribution rate. The ending value is $8,091,000. Paul Becker: Elaine, can you explain the transfer of securities? Policemen's Pension and Relief Fund Board of Trustees Meeting Minutes April 19, 2012 Page 8 of 13 Elaine Longer: When we started managing in 1990 we received part of the pension fund and there were still outside managers. I think there were two outside managers besides Longer Investments. Eldon Roberts: I think so besides you. Elaine Longer: Then eventually those assets were consolidated. Then we have the investment policy which was amended in the fourth quarter of last year. Basically it's a balanced investment portfolio that specifies maximum equity at 50%, unless approved by the board when we meet, and provide for growth and income within a balanced portfolio structure consistent with prudent levels of risk. That's how the portfolio is managed over all. Are there any questions on any of the reports? Do you have time for an update? I was at an investment conference in New York last month and this particular table puts all the worries into one table. This basically shows when the markets bottomed in March 2009 and what has happened between March 2009 and March 2012 on various measures. The most important thing is if you look at the S&P 500 index price we basically had 101.9% increase in price on the stock market from the lows of March 2009 through March 2012. The earnings per share have risen by 94.6%, slightly less than the market price. The difference has been in expansion in the price earnings multiple which went from 13.7 times earnings to a 14.2 times earnings. What gave you that rise in the market is a combination of almost 100% increase in earnings and a slight expansion of the multiple or the valuation that investors apply to the earnings. Kit Williams: Isn't that still a pretty good price earnings ratio historically? Elaine Longer: Historically the average is about 15 times earnings. If you look at price earnings ratios in relation to the ten year treasury, it's even a cheaper evaluation. That is why stocks given earnings as they currently are and the ten year treasury rate as it currently is are still under valued relative to bonds. You've had 100% appreciation in earnings but the concern that we have if you look at the total government debt here has gone from $10.9 trillion to $15.5 trillion. You've had a 42% increase in the total outstanding debt of America. If you look at the S&P 500 revenues we got a 1% increase in revenues. You've almost had a 100% increase in earnings per share on a 1% increase in revenues that took 42% increase in our debt to GDP as a country to give us a 1% increase in revenues. The term that is sometimes used is "pushing on a string", what is the marginal benefit of another dollar of deficit spending. There's not a lot of bang there for the buck and if you look at what we get in terms of nominal GDP growth we got an 11% increase in nominal GDP, which is not adjusted for inflation with a 42% increase in our countries over all debt. That would be like saying a company like IBM increased their total debt by 42% and they only got a 1% increase in revenues, the stock wouldn't be doing to well. This is the concern list and you can see that it has taken a lot of debt to hold this together to keep us in a positive GDP growth rate and a 1% revenue growth rate on the S&P 500. The next page we all know that the deficit spending is really front and center in the political discussion right now and we know its unsustainable. The reason we are not suffering the repercussions that Greece, Spain or Italy is suffering right now is not that we are not all that Policemen's Pension and Relief Fund Board of Trustees Meeting Minutes April 19, 2012 Page 9 of 13 much more attractive on a fiscal discipline standpoint but were the reserve currency. We print our currency and what has happened with quantitative easing one and quantitative easing two is that our Federal Reserve is basically able to print the money; although it's not printed anymore it's a key stroke of computer systems, so that we are basically buying our debt. In fact in the past year I think the most recent numbers we've actually bought 61 % of the debt that has been issued by the Federal Reserve. We all know that it is unsustainable at this level. You've probably heard in the news the fiscal cliff is what people are talking about. What is the fiscal cliff? This brings it out very clearly because in 2013 we have a lot of things coming due that have been kicked down the road so in 2013 it hits. You can tell from what is going on in Washington right now that not much of this serious stuff is going to be addressed before the election. We are talking about what will be addressed by a lame duck congress, probably not so we face 2013 with a lot of uncertainty because when this was printed basically it says that this fiscal cliff amounts to $430 billion of tax increases and various fiscal adjustments that represent about a 3.5% of GDP hit to the economy. Since this was released I have now received an update that has updated the $430 billion number to $535 billion. What is composed of is the expiration of the Bush tax cuts, you hear this being talked about a lot now and basically they set to roll off in January unless congress acts. That means that increases taxes on estates, small businesses, high income individuals, capital gains, dividends and also on the middle class that needs to be addressed. The expiration of the alternative minimum tax patch is going to be rolling off in January. Kit Williams: That will affect more people too then. Elaine Longer: That would affect a lot of the middle class that's kind of stuck in this alternative minimum tax that was never indexed for inflation. They're not wealthy individuals trying to hide from income taxes, their in the alternative minimum tax because the brackets were never indexed for inflation. I read last week at the time that the AMT was put into place it affected 117 tax payers and now it affects millions. It wasn't ever indexed for inflation. Then we had the expiration of payroll tax cuts and the extended unemployment insurance which was passed during the Christmas holiday session. They couldn't really come to grips with anything so they punted that to January 2013. They went ahead and extended the payroll tax cut which is 2% of the social security tax that would otherwise be withheld from employee's payroll. It's not an income tax it's a payroll tax that is normally withheld. It affects everybody 2%. Then you have the Obama healthcare tax increases which are scheduled to begin but we don't even know if the Supreme Court will uphold the healthcare law. This is a lot of uncertainty. The 2009 stimulus spending is rolling over and unlikely to be continued with another big spending program in this kind of a budget climate. Then we sequestered spending cuts that come into affect because if you remember back in July we had the big meetings to try to address our deficit in front of the debt ceiling meeting to be raised. They couldn't come up with any kind of an agreement. The debt ceiling was raised to November and it was all passed to the super committee, which was then vested with the reasonability of coming up with a deficit reduction plan, which if they didn't succeed would involve sequestered spending cuts. They didn't succeed so these sequestered spending cuts will kick into affect in January 2013, unless they can get together and address the issues that weren't addressed in November and July. Policemen's Pension and Relief Fund Board of Trustees Meeting Minutes April 19, 2012 Page 10 of 13 Then the debt ceiling is probably going to need to be raised. All of these things that we have been dealing with that brought about the downgrade of our credit grading last July are still there. Kit Williams: The zero that means all the stimulus and stuff as we start going into a surplus if it drops below zero? Elaine Longer: This is the net federal stimulus fund. These various programs, because of the combination of all of these hit's some of them increased taxes which takes money out of the real economy. Also the result of spending that rolls off which will no longer be there as a stimulus, represents a drag so going from a net stimulus affects of all of these things as they're currently running a $700 billion to a net drag of $100 billion. Kit Williams: So we are stimulating the economy by actually taking more money out in taxes than we are spending. Elaine Longer: Exactly, and its equivalent at this level to 3.5% of GDP when we are creeping along at a 2% growth rate. You can see why this is causing so much concern because if you're still at a 2% growth rate and you see that unemployment is still above 8% and you don't have a lot of flex to this economy. We just had an employment number that showed only 120,000 new jobs created. The employment rate may have gone up except for the participation rate went down. That means you're only actually caught in their numbers as unemployed if you are actively seeking employment. If you drop out of the workforce, you're discouraged, you don't want to look for a job, you take a part time job because you can't find a full time job or you return to school, you're not picked up as unemployed even though technically you're still unemployed. The last unemployment number was so weak that had it not been for a decrease in participation in the employment sector you would have had an increase in the unemployment rate. Here we are so far into this economic recovery and we are still not at what gives anyone a sustained feeling that we've hit traction. We're happy for the 2% growth rate but when you see the ten year treasury at a 1.95% and the five year is at a 0.85% what that says is no one is buying that we are really on autopilot. To see a fiscal cliff out there that needs to be addressed or could be as much as a 3.5% of GDP drag on an economy that's chugging along at 2% causes people concern. Kit Williams: Why do you think the stock went up so well in the first quarter, then? Elaine Longer: The problems that gave us so much concern last year which is domestic with the fiscal problems that we face and with the slow growth and the unemployment that just seems so entrenched, it's not like a typical unemployment. Bernanke talks about this a lot on his opportunities to speak about the problems of the long term unemployed. That is all still here with us. There was a bit of a honeymoon once they got the Greek deal done. We have finally moved Greece off center stage but over here on the left hand side of the stage you've got Spain, Italy and Portugal. The problems that we dealt with all last year are still very much there. If you look at the earnings that have been coming through the American corporate earning potential has been one of the bright spots in the whole world economies and in the world markets. The US markets out performed the world markets last year but the problem with that is can those profit margins be sustained if we have any kind of a slack in the economic growth or increase in wage rate inflation or increase in any kind of commodity inflation energy prices etc. Policemen's Pension and Relief Fund Board of Trustees Meeting Minutes April 19, 2012 Page 11 of 13 There is plenty out there that looks good especially as it pertains to US corporate earnings and especially relative to an available 2% ten year. The flip side is the worry list. That is why you can't really get religion about anything out there right now. You can see in the stock market activity where you take a stock like Apple that tagged 644 one day, two days later was trading at 571, yesterday traded at 620 and today its 585. This is the kind of volatility that we have and it's reflective of the uncertainty in the markets and as people try to adjust to the changes that they see out there. The stock market is a member of the leading economic indicators because of the fact that its six to nine months down the road. That's why the stock prices and the action in the stock market is actually part of the leading economic indicators because it actually leads the economy. When you look at this fiscal cliff and the elections and we have a very important Supreme Court ruling in June with the Obama care. We look at that and the stock market today is not going to be reflecting what's happening today. The stock market today is really in the fourth quarter. Kit Williams: Did you think we have already seen the gains that we are going to see in the stock market this year? Elaine Longer: It's hard to say there's a lot of sector rotation as the technology stocks really took off a lot of things like the high income more defensive stocks that we have, have really been stalled, five percent relative to a 12% in the S&P that's because the text stocks, the high flyers did about 18%. Now you see a lot of those coming down Qualcomm today, IBM yesterday, Intel's earnings were a slight disappointment, EMC, Apple, Google, so all of those that were part of that big first quarter with technology have really been hit pretty hard in the past two weeks. But what we are seeing on our screens is that some of the cyclical that have a clean balance sheet 3% to 4% dividend yields and have not really done anything for the past six to twelve months are starting to move. We have picked up some stocks like BHP and Freeport McMoRan and different resources and some of these that look attractive on a valuation basis. Even though they are not drugs, energy or utilities they still have a very good income yield and they are starting to look like they could start to perform better. It's very hard to categorize the market overall because within the market there are many different plays being played out. It's very fractured right now. Jerry Friend: Does anyone track fees? There are so many fees for government services that we don't consider a tax but really is. Elaine Longer: I haven't seen anything like that. Jerry Friend: Seems like they are getting more expensive. On the news you hear the government raised this fee or start charging here. Elaine Longer: I thought the article in the NWA Business Journal interviewing the local bankers on the impact of Dodd -Frank is very eye opening. The whole purpose of Dodd -Frank is to address the "Too Big to Fail." The problem is they are going to snuff out the small banks and they should be the ones that we are trying to nurture. It's a great article but what it means is the cost of compliance for all of these regulations is going through the roof. I thought that the bank interviews were fabulous. When I saw Dodd -Frank coming out I took two bank presidents out and just said one on one, what does this look like to you? I can tell you what it looks like to me and I had attended a conference in Dallas that pretty much discussed this and I thought can it Policemen's Pension and Relief Fund Board of Trustees Meeting Minutes April 19, 2012 Page 12 of 13 really be that bad. Then I took these bankers out and just said off the record what does it look like to you. Basically what they told me last year is what you can read it in the Arkansas Business Journal. Their having to add full time positions just to try and figure out. The fact of the matter is the bill was passed with only a third of it currently filled in. They don't even know what is still coming. The cost of regulations is probably behind some of what you are seeing in increased fees because someone has to pay for it. Jerry Friend: Is Dodd -Frank the one that also tried to address that they said the banks are using late fees and credit cards. Kit Williams: Yes, they restricted the amount of fees the bank can charge. Elaine Longer: That's what is happening at the banks. It's the down side of the regulation it is costly to implement. Eldon Roberts: Given the fact this is an election year and members of congress are up for election and the president also, what do you think the likelihood is that they are going to address this in time to avoid the tax increases. Elaine Longer: Zero chance. They do anything that is significant enough to allay concerns about this. I would be shocked in today's political climate. I just don't see them even being able to agree to sit down and discuss it. There is so much political risk on both sides. They are so polarized. Eldon Roberts: Basically this is reality. Elaine Longer: At this point that's all we have to go on, that's what's going to hit. A lot can happen quickly after the election which is not going to be an answer to the underlying problem but lame duck congress president can extend the Bush tax cuts to June, so you don't have all of this hitting in January or they may vote again to extend the payroll tax cut to June. I don't anticipate anything significant to address our underlying fiscal problem will come out of any kind of a lame duck congress or this congressional situation that we have at this point in time. If this starts to affect the markets I think you could actually see them move to extend it to June or something like that, that at least would get rid of some of the concerns about what happens after the end of the year. Eldon Roberts: When do the newly elected members of congress take office? Kit Williams: Early in January. Eldon Roberts: The president is the 21st, isn't it? Kit Williams: A little bit before the president. They will do something to kick the can down the road again. That is all they have been doing and that is why our deficit keeps growing and growing. Melvin Stanley: The Federal Government hasn't had a budget for five years. Elaine Longer: That's right. Policemen's Pension and Relief Fund Board of Trustees Meeting Minutes April 19, 2012 Page 13 of 13 Melvin Stanley: How can that be? Kit Williams: Continuing resolutions, they can't agree on a budget so they agree on continuing a resolution instead. Not a very good way to run a government. Melvin Stanley: There's not an individual in this room, City of Fayetteville, State of Arkansas that can operate in the red, the Federal Government can, something is wrong. Elaine Longer: At this point in time at the Federal level out of every dollar we spend were borrowing 44 cents. That's just on an operating budget basis. That doesn't include the long term unfunded liabilities of Medicare and Social Security. The reason right now that we are not facing increased funding costs of our debt is because as bad as this looks we are sort of the best house in a bad neighborhood relative to what is going on in the Eurozone relative to what's going on with Japan. Japan's debt total GDP is now over 200%. They have an aging society and they are facing some of these demographic problems that the Americans are facing but its much more front and center because they are already at 200% debt to GDP. By virtue the fact that others look as bad or worse and we retain the world reserve currency status, even though we have been downgraded to an AA credit, we are still the best house in a bad neighborhood. Kit Williams: Eventually it's going to have to go down to zero to be balanced. Eventually we have to go down to at least zero and start paying off some of that debt. Longer Investments 1st Ouarter 2012 report A copy was given to the Board Longer Investments monthly report A copy was given to the Board Informational: 2012 Meeting Schedule A copy was given to the Board Sondra Smith: Your next meeting will be July 19th Meeting Adjourned at 3:50 PM