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HomeMy WebLinkAbout1994-04-28 - Agendas - Final• • • AGENDA FIREMEN'S PENSION AND RELIEF BOARD April 28, 1994 11:00 a.m. City Hall Room 326 1. Approval of the minutes of the March 31, 1994 meeting 2. Approval of Pension List for May, 1994 3 Old Business 4 New Business 1. Investment Report 5. Adjournment • • MINUTES OF A MEETING OF THE FIRE PENSION BOARD A meeting of the Fayetteville Firemen's Pension and Relief Board was held on Thursday, March 31, 1994, at 11:00 a.m. ih Room 326 of the City Administration Building, 113 W. Mountain,Fayetteville, Arkansas. PRESENT: Marion Doss, Pete Reagan and Ron Wood, Retirees Richard Baird and Darrell Judy, Mayor Fred Hanna, City Clerk Sherry Thomas, and Treasurer Glyndon Bunton CALL TO ORDER Marion Doss called the meeting to order. MINUTES Reagan, seconded by Wood, made a motion to approve the minutes of the February 24, 1994 meeting. The motion was approved unanimously PENSION LIST Reagan, seconded by Doss, made a motion to approve the pension lists for April 1994. There were no changes in the pension list. The motion was approved unanimously. OLD BUSINESS DROP PLAN Reagan stated he did not attend the meeting that was held on the 30th about the Drop Plan. The Pension Review Board will be discussing this at their April 6 meeting, so he stated this should be left on the table until the April meeting. NEW BUSINESS INVESTMENT REPORT Richard Yada, Merrill Lynch, stated the portfolio balance through February was $4,313,316 with New Mexico Capital and $3;406,680 in the income account. New,.Mexico was up 2.56%, but the income account was down .7%. The pension fund investment with Merrill Lynch has basically doubled since originally invested in 1985-86. The asset allocation is $2,446,430 in stocks, $4,166,579 in bonds, $433,807 in cash, and $173,180 in other. The percentage allocation is 5.62% in cash, 53.97% in fixed income, 38.17% in stocks, and 2.24% in other. Yada stated the actuary report should be ready He stated all pension plans are to be sound by he feels Fayetteville will meet that deadline. in July or August. the year 2003, and He discussed some ARCHIVED • • • March 31, 1994 of the figures from the 1992 actuary report. He stated if the pension fund had sold everything in 1993, the fund would have been sound. He reminded the board that the actuary report in based on cost and not market figures. Yada stated in 1988 there were 38 or 39 active members in the plan. Now, there are only 26 still paying into the plan, so the rate of retirement has been greater than expected. This is a negative to the actuary. The projected payroll for 1993 was $750,000, but the actual is around $600,000, so this too is a negative to the actuary. The projected benefit payments for 1993 was $33,337, but the actual amount is a little over $31,000. Yada stated he hopes the fund will be actuarially sound by the 1995 actuary. He stated the actuary feels the Drop Plan will have a zero effect on the actuarial soundness of the pension plans. Reagan stated he read a memo from the Pension Review Board that said the Drop Plan would have a zero effect on police pension funds, but they expect there will be a 15% negative effect on fire pension funds. He stated he would like to see this board not approve the drop plan until the actual costs and effects are known. Doss stated the Pension Board has to consider the future of the people who are already retired as well. There can be no benefit increases until the fund is sound. If the Drop Plan costs the fund 15%, he does not know whether the fund can afford the plan. Yada stated the fund is on target, and perhaps even a little ahead, on becoming actuarially sound. Doss stated a member of the Harrison Fire Department Pension Board called him to see if Fayetteville would be interested in doing their own actuary report. He told the member he did not feel the Pension Board would be interested, but he would report this to the Pension Board and let them make a decision. Yada stated the state Pension Review Board has some very conservative projections and rules. A pension board is allowed to select another actuary as long as it is certified. No one expressed any interest in obtaining an outside actuary. Reagan stated in May, election. He asked nominations, and then ADJOURNMENT ELECTION OF OFFICERS his term and Darrell Judy's come up for re - Thomas to mail out a letter asking for a ballot to the full time retired firemen. The meeting adjourned at 11:38 a.m. NM Capital Management, Inc. Quarterly Investment Comment • First Quarter 1994 • • FIRST QUARTER 1994 REVIEW Signs of economic strength caused the Federal Reserve to increase short-term interest rates in February. This adjustment signalled the end of a three- year decline in rates and, therefore, was viewed as a major turning point. New inflation concerns convinced investors that interest rates would be rising. The Federal Reserve's action in raising short- term rates was, in reality, relatively modest. However, there were at least a half-dozen more excuses given for the decline in the bond and stock markets. Unsettling international events in Russia, Mexico and North Korea; Chinese and Japanese trade negotiations; hedge bond fund liquidations were just a few of the reasons given. The stock market averages peaked in early February at record highs and declined slightly with the Fed interest rate increase. In late March, the S&P 500 dropped 5% in two weeks resulting in a negative 3.8% return for the quarter Government/Corporate Intermediate Bond indices were also negative 2-3%. ECONOMIC AND INVESTMENT OUTLOOK The economy has shown marked improvement over the last six months Current signs of increased consumer confidence, retail spending, employment, income growth and capital spending plans suggest this increased growth rate will continue in the months ahead. If economic growth accelerates further, inflation worries will likely force interest rates higher, possibly influencing a further stock market correction. Also, rising interest rates could eventually stall and abort the economic and corporate earnings recovery and slow the flow of new money into mutual funds which have helped fuel the securities markets over the last two years. On the other hand, evidence of a slow down in growth will tend to reduce upward pressure on rates and, therefore, may be bullish for stocks. The on and off -again inflation fears will affect interest rates and the stock market in the months ahead. With interest rates trending higher, bond investment performance will be constrained. Improving economies of Europe and Japan in 1994-95 should sustain U.S. economic growth over the next several years. A sustained improvement in corporate earnings will likely become the engine of the stock market, and we still expect stocks to outperform bonds during 1994. EQUITY STRATEGY Equity Focus Comment "There are two types of remorse which investors may feel. One is that felt when one misses possible gains by selling and taking profits early. This type of remorse is not taken seriously. The other type is felt when one misses a good time to sell due to greediness ... and consequently suffers a severe loss. This type of remorse is very painful. One must restrain oneself. " Master Honma, Japanese Rice Trader (1724-1803) • • • • As Master Honma noted almost three hundred years ago, two basic human emotions power the perpetual volatility of any market place they are fear and greed Investors must continually attempt to navigate between the opposing natures of these ancient, circling antagonists to locate and remain within the eye of the hurricane; that peaceful and perpetual field of equilibrium wherein the rich harvest of above-average investment returns can consistently be made. One of the first things we learn in this regard, is the importance of discipline. While it is certainly important to be disciplined in one's buying decisions, it is equally important to be disciplined in one's decisions to sell. Our recent decision to sell the shares of the North American cement company, LaFarge, just when the tide of consensus thought seems ready to support the idea of investing in them, provides an excellent example of NMCM's sellmg discipline in action. When we first began buying the shares of LaFarge in June, 1991, the consensus outlook for cement was singularly uninspired. It was, to put it bluntly, boring. Consequently, we had a unique opportunity to invest m a collection of sound economic assets, at prices which were below replacement cost. We did not know when the demand for cement would once again be strong enough to drive returns on those assets to acceptable levels. But, given the ubiquitous utility of cement, we believed that the odds were profoundly in our favor that, eventually, they would. The shares of LAF were also selling below book value and at 7 times the low end of our estimated range of normalized earnings power; two classic indications of a potentially undervalued common stock. We also felt comfortable with the idea that when investors as a group again focused on the need to rebuild America's crumbling infrastructure, expectations for improved earnings in the cement industry would reemerge, driving multiples on projected earnings at LAF to at least 10 times and perhaps higher. 10-12 times a normalized earnings power of $2 - 3 per share would be likely to result in rates of return well within our initial required range of 15 - 20% per year, even if the process took four or five years. And so, we invested in the shares. One of the things we constantly stress to our clients is that we really do sell stocks when they reach our sell targets. When the shares of LaFarge closed above $25 per share on 1-10-94, our commitment to sell at a target of $25 was triggered. A review of the fundamentals revealed no material reason to change our initial valuation parameters for the stock Therefore, we sold the shares. At 12-31-93, the average cost per share for LaFarge in NMCM managed portfolios was between $14 - 15 per share. Selling at $24 - 25 resulted in a total annualized 21/2 year compound return in excess of 25%, well above the average return on domestic equities over this time period and above our hurdle rate of 20%. There is no guarantee that the future will provide opportunities as rewarding as was our investment cycle in LaFarge. However, time and precedent are heavily weighted in our favor — human nature is very slow to change. FIXED INCOME STRATEGY Not Boring Anymore. Many investors consider the bond market and interest rates to be one of the more boring aspects of investing; but in the first 3 months of • • • 1994 the bond market took center stage, and its activity was cited as the reason behind the moves in a variety of other markets. All U.S. interest rates ended the first quarter higher than where they started and two factors are noteworthy: (1) The increase in rates, which actually began in October of 1993, matches or exceeds the increases that have occurred since the long-term decline in rates began in earnest in early 1989, so the increase has been significant.; and (2) The Federal Reserve made it very clear that it wanted short-term interest rates higher. These factors combined with the current economic environment suggest that the almost 5 -year decline in rates is, in fact, over and the risk is for rates to move higher. Further mcreases might not be as dramatic as those recently experienced, but the upward pressure will be present and volatility will remain high. What should one do in such an environment? For some time now we have focused our attention on the 3 to 5 -year maturity government bonds, which is the shorter end of the maturity spectrum that extends out to 30 years. The results of the first quarter of 1994 illustrate our reasons for doing so. The 30 -year U.S. government bond, which is often cited as how the "bond market" is doing, with a par value of $100,000, had a market value of about $98,688 at the beginning of the quarter. By the end of the quarter it was worth 9% less or about $89,719. In comparison, the 5 -year bond fell only 4% from $99,625 to $95,656 while earning only about $300 less in interest income. This example demonstrates the trade-off between risk and return — striving for higher returns means accepting higher risk and vice versa. Since we feel that upward pressure on rates will continue, we plan to maintain our strategy of high quality, short -intermediate maturity bonds, which we believe is the best balance between risk and return at this time. NM CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, INC. Page 1 CLIENT : FAYETTPP - CITY OF FAYETTEVILLE FIRE PENSION AND RELIEF FUND REPORTING PERIOD: 01/01/94 TO 03/31/94 M�YICER: NTSC PORTFOLIO COMPOSITION STATEMENT OF CHANGES MARKET % OF PORTFOLIO MARKET VALUE AT 01/01/94: $4,206,563.02 VALUE TOTAL DEPOSITS 6,345.88 CASH AND EQUIVALENTS $97,627.82 2.4 WITHDRAWALS (4,514.94) EQUITIES 2,843,945.00 69.2 INCOME EARNED 39,242.36 GOV'T/CORP BONDS 1,136,791.16 27.7 CAPITAL APPRECIATION (136,739.00) ACCRUED INCOME 32,533 34 0.8 TOTAL $4,110,697.32 100.0 PORTFOLIO MARKET VALUE AT 03/31/94: $4,110,897.32 THE FOLLOWING RETURNS ARE SHOWN GROSS OF MANAGEMENT FEES: CUMULATIVE ANNUALIZED 01/01/94 TO 03/31/94 YEAR-TO-DATE PAST TWELVE MONTHS SINCE INCEPTION SINCE INCEPTION TOTAL PORTFOLIO -2.3% -2.3% 10.5% 60.0% 11.7% CASH AND EQUIVALENTS 0.9% 0.9% 3.4% 23.9% 5.2% EQUITIES -2.0% -2.0% 15.4% 70.6% 13.4% GOV'T/CORP BONDS -2.7% -2.7% 2.5% 49.4% 9.9% ED INDEX - I -3.0% -3.0% 2.0% 47.7% 9.6% BILLS 0.8% 0.8% 3.2% 24.4% 5.3% S0500 REINVESTED -3.8% -3.8% 1.5% 50.2% 10.0% GOVT/CORP INTERMEDIATE 80N0 -2.0% -2.0% 2.5% 42.9% 8.8% CONSUMER PRICE INDEX 0.8% 0.8% 2.4% 16.6% 3.7% INVESTMENT EARNINGS (APPRECIATION + INCOME) SINCE INCEPTION 01/18/90: $1,244,416.15 NOTE: THE RETURNS SHOWN FOR THE VARIOUS SEGMENTS OF THE PORTFOLIO (CASH, EQUITY, ETC.) ARE SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION TO THE TOTAL PORTFOLIO RETURN. SEGMENT NOT HELD FOR THE DESIGNATED PERIOD THEREFORE SEGMENT RETURNS ARE NOT COMPARABLE TO THE INDICES. NM CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, INC. DATE PRINTED: 05/05/94 PortfolioSummary PRICING DATE: 03/31/94 DATE OF APPRAISAL: 03/31/94 FAYETTPP - CITY OF FAYETTEVILLE FIRE PENSION AND RELIEF FUND ESTIMATED MARKET % OF ANNUAL VALUE PORTFOLIO INCOME YIELD Cash and Equivalents MONEY MARKET FUNDS Fixed Income GOVERNMENT ISSUES Equities COMMON STOCKS 97,627.82 2.4 2,851 2.9 1,136,791.16 27.7 85,025 7.5 2,843,945.00 69.2 68,307 2.4 ACCRUED INTEREST 28,652.34 ACCRUED DIVIDEND 3,881.00 TOTAL PORTFOLIO 0.7 0.1 4,110,897.32 100.0 156,183 3.8 NM CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, INC. DATE PRINTED: 05/05/94 Common Stock Summary PRICING DATE: 03/31/94 DATE OF APPRAISAL: 03/31/94 FAYETTPP - CITY OF FAYETTEVILLE FIRE PENSION ANO RELIEF FUND % OF % OF MARKET COMMON TOTAL COMMON STOCKS VALUE STOCKS PORTFOLIO Capital Goods - Industrial Capital Goods - Technology Consumer Durables Consumer Non -Durables Energy Finance Basic Industry Transportation Utilities TOTAL COMMON STOCK 115,500.00 536,387.50 514,475.00 843,941.50 86,000.00 77,750.00 357,312.50 198,800.00 113,778.50 2,843,945.00 4.1 18.9 18.1 29.7 3.0 2.7 12.6 7.0 4.0 2.8 13.0 12.5 20.5 2.1 1.9 8.7 4.8 2.8 100.0 69.2 DATE PRINTED: 05/05/94 • SHARES / FACE VALUE DESCRIPTION NM CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, INC. Page 1 Client Appraisal FAYETTPP - CITY OF FAYETTEVILLE FIRE PENSION AND RELIEF FUND Cash and Equivalents MONEY MARKET FUNDS 97,627.82 MONEY MARKET FUND UNIT COST TOTAL COST MARKET PRICE MARKET VALUE PRICING DATE: 03/31/94 DATE OF APPRAISAL: 03/31/94 % OF % OF ASSET PORTFOLIO CLASS ESTIMATED ANNUAL CUR INCOME YLO 1.00 97,627.82 1.00 97,627.82 2.4 100.0 2,851 2.9 Fixed Income GOVERNMENT ISSUES 220,000 US TREAS 8.500% 05/15/97 100.04 100,000 FNMA DEB 9.550% 09/10/97 99.34 100,000 FNMA DEB 9.150% 04/10/98 99.34 100,000 US TREAS 5.250% 07/31/98 101.25 300,000 US TREAS 7.875% 11/15/99 102.95 250,000 US TREAS 7.500% 11/15/01 101.00 TOTAL GOVERNMENT ISSUES Equities COMMON STOCKS Capital Goods - Industrial 5,500 HARNISCHFEGER INDUSTRY Capital Goods - Technology 4,200 AUGAT INC 3,500 BOEING CO •4,500 DYNATECH CORP 3,400 PRECISION CASTPARTS CP 2,500 ROCKWELL INTL CORP 2,300 3,400 7,800 6,300 2,300 5,896 7,200 9,500 6,400 3,300 7,000 5,900 220,092.35 107.78 99,343.75 109.59 99,343.75 110.16 101,254.85 96.72 308,852.10 107.03 252,504.85 104.84 1,081,391.65 237,118.86 109,593.80 110,156.30 96,718.80 321,093.90 262,109.50 5.8 20.9 18,700 7.9 2.7 9.6 9.550 8.7 2.7 9.7 9,150 8.3 2.4 8.5 5,250 5.4 7.8 28.2 23,625 7.4 6.4 23.1 18,750 7.2 1,136,791.16 27.7 100.0 85,025 7.5 18.88 103,848.18 21.00 115,500.00 2.8 4.1 2,200 1.9 12.17 40.78 19.62 19.00 23.28 TOTAL Capital Goods - Technology Consumer Durables ARVIN INDS INC BROWN GROUP INC CROSS (A.T.) COMPANY OUTBOARD MARINE CORP TANDY CORP TOTAL Consumer Durables Consumer Non -Durables ARCHER DANIELS MIDLAND COORS ADOLPH DELTA WOODSIDE HANSON PLC SPONSRD MERCANTILE STORES RUSS BERRIE 8 CO INC RYKOFF-SEXTON INC TOTAL Consumer Non -Durables 22..07 30.94 14.56 18.43 27.15 21.12 19.19 12.46 19.43 34.97 15.54 17.67 51,123.55 142,736.60 88,294.85 64,587.65 58,189.85 404,932.70 50,754.35 105,179.14 113,561.55 116,092.54 62,453.25 448.040.83 20.00 44.50 18.50 33.63 39.63 28.00 36.63 15.50 19.25 36.25 124,541.50 24.00 138,172.85 18.13 118,362.05 11.63 124,371.40 19.88 115,399.35 38.25 108,799.70 13.50 104,249.75 19.25 84,000.00 155,750.00 83,250.00 114,325.00 99,062.50 2.0 3.0 3.8 5.5 2.0 2.9 2.8 4.0 2.4 3.5 0 0.0 3,500 2.2 0 0.0 816 0.7 2,500 2.5 536,387.50 13.0 18.9 6,816 1.3 64,400.00 124,525.00 120,900.00 121,275.00 83,375.00 1.6 2.3 1,748 2.7 3.0 4.4 5,440 4.4 2.9 4.3 4,992 4.1 3.0 4.3 2,520 2.1 2.0 2.9 1,380 1.7 514,475.00 12.5 18.1 16,080 3.1 141,504.00 3.4 5.0 130,500.00 3.2 4.6 110,437.50 2.7 3.9 127,200.00 3.1 4.5 126,225.00 3.1 4.4 94,500.00 2.3 3.3 113,575.00 2.8 4.0 590 3,600 3,800 5,651 3,366 4,200 0 0.4 2.8 3.4 4.4 2.7 4.4 0.0 833,896.60 843,941.50 20.5 29.7 21,207 2.5 DATE PRINTED: 05/05/94 • SHARES / FACE VALUE • 1 DESCRIPTION Energy 16,000 PARKER DRILLING CO 1,000 11,800 5,700 6,300 Finance ST PAUL COS INC NM CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, INC. Page 2 Client Appraisal PRICING DATE: 03/31/94 DATE OF APPRAISAL: 03/31/94 FAYETTPP - CITY OF FAYETTEVILLE FIRE PENSION AND RELIEF FUND Basic Industry CALGON CARBON CORP, GLATFELTER COMPANY JAMES RIVER CORP VA TOTAL Basic Industry X OF ESTIMATED UNIT TOTAL MARKET MARKET X OF ASSET ANNUAL CUR COST COST PRICE VALUE PORTFOLIO CLASS INCOME YLO 6.06 96,964.85 5.38 86,000.00 2.1 3.0 0 0.0 76.30 76,295.05 77.75 77,750.00 1.9 2.7 3,000 3.9 11.70 138,046.70 12.88 151,925.00 3.7 5.3 1.888 1.2 18.62 106,138 85 16.00 91,200.00 2.2 3.2 3,990 4.4 20.98 132,147.40 18.13 114,187.50 2.8 4.0 3,780 3.3 376,332.95 357,312.50 8.7 12.6 9,658 2.7 Transportation 7,800 AAR CORP 13.32 103,899.25 15.50 120,900.00 2.9 4.3 3,744 3.1 3,800 OVERSEAS SHIPHOLOING GROUP 19.19 72,926.85 20.50 77,900.00 1.9 2.7 2.280 2.9 3,322 TOTAL Transportation Utilities SPRINT CORP TOTAL COMMON STOCKS 176,826.10 198,800.00 4.8 7.0 6,024 3.0 23.67 78,627.85 34.25 113,778.50 2.8 4.0 3.322 2.9 2,595,765.11 2,843,945.00 69.2 100.0 68,307 2.4 ACCRUED INTEREST 28,652.34 0.7 ACCRUED DIVIDEND 3,881.00 0.1 TOTAL PORTFOLIO 3,774,784.58 4,110,897.32 100.0 100.0 156,183 3.8