HomeMy WebLinkAbout1993-01-28 - Agendas - Final•
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ROXBURY
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
JANUARY 1993 LETTER TO CLIENTS
1992 Review And Recultc:
The S&P 500 was up 5.05% in the fourth
quarter and 7.62% for the year.
The investment markets rallied in the fourth
quarter as economic data improved, Christ-
mas retail sales rebounded, and investor
uncertainty over the election finally ended.
The strongest investment sectors for stocks
during 1992 were the over-the-counter mar-
kets including new issues, savings and loans,
banks, restaurant franchises, and high tech-
nology companies. Cyclical stocks had
uneven rebounds as expectations about the
economic recovery ebbed and flowed
throughout the year.
The over-the-counter and new issue markets
have become highly volatile in the past three
months. Large institutional finds, mutual
funds, and pension managers have invested
m small stocks like never before. Some
valuations have become excessive and the
risks are increasing.
For Roxbury, it was a year of positive but
below market equity mums following a very
strong 1991. We made many necessary
portfolio changes during the year and we
expect to make additional changes during
1993 as Clinton economic policies and the
economic recovery evolve.
Roxbury's Portfolio Dzing 1992
Overall our core stocks met their eamings
growth projections but did not advance in
price, perhaps because some of them got
c%
ahead of themselves in 1991. The health care
sector was down in 1992. A combination of
very strong price appreciation in 1991, a
slow down of earnings growth, and concern
that the Clinton health program will mean
price controls on pharmaceutical and health
services hurt the stocks. We reduced posi-
tions in health care throughout the year.
Our new commitment to municipal bond
insurer MBIA should do very well in view
of Clinton's tax increase proposals and the
growing cash needs of states and municipali-
ties. The telephone communications sector
has done well also with new commitments to
AT&T and MCI. We continue to be enthu-
siastic about telecommunications companies
on a world-wide basis. This area has grown
rapidly throughout the recession and should
do even better in the years ahead
The rising dollar and the recessions in Japan
and Europe have affected our investment in
ADRs, including leading European compa-
nies such as Guinness and Hafslund
Nycomed Hafshmd's earnings were strong
but Guinness' earnings were below expecta-
tions
xpectations as sales of premium liquor and cham-
pagne declined with the recession. We are
reappraising Guinness and Hafslund
Nycomed in view of the current economic
problems in Europe. However, we continue
to be excited by the quality and value of
many non -U.S. world class companies
While currency swings may affect perfor-
mance of ADRs in the short run, studies
show that the cost of hedging currencies is
not economic in the long nn because cur -
100 Wilshire Blvd., Suite 600 Santa Monica, Califomia 90401 310 / 917.5600 FAX 310 / 917-2850
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rency swings tend to even out over time.
One of our stocks, Food Lion, a fast grow-
ing, warehouse -type supermarket chain was
the subject of a "Prime Time Live" expose
charging the company with selling tainted
meat and poultry. The company denies any
systematic scam, citing union organizing
efforts to injure the chains reputation. Food
Lion customers stayed away and sales fell
by 5-10% following the TV show We
remember a similar scare at Johnson &
Johnson (Tylenol) which was quickly re-
solved. In this case, the damage could be
longer lived and we are watching the situa-
tion closely
The_figualarkg was helped during 1992
as the Fed desperately tried to jump start the
economy, help out the banking system, and
re-elect George Bush. Short term interest
rates reached the lowest level in 29 years.
Bond returns have averaged about 12% per
year over the past 10 years. However, inter-
est rates began in the last decade at 12-14%.
Bond investors have collected high interest
and seen their bonds rise in price as interest
rates declmed. With interest rates lower
now, bond returns will be lower in the years
ahead and portfolios will need careful atten-
tion if they are to avoid being in the wrong
place at the wrong time. We don't think
short term rates can fall much more and
longer bonds will be more volatile as the
Clinton economic plan unfolds.
Clinton Economic%
The Clinton team is hampered by the budget
deficit and its pledge to deliver progress in
education, health care, and the environment.
Clinton's tax increase won't help the econo-
my. Fortunately, the economy is mending
on its own with the help of business, particu-
larly through global growth and lower oper-
ating costs.
We don't look for any radical initiatives by
Clinton and we are generally comfortable, if
cautious, about what we have seen so far.
The 1993 Outlook
Most world economies are in recession,
chaos, or slow growth. Notable exceptions
are Mexico, China, and Southeast Asia. The
U.S is ahead of Europe and Japan in its
recovery. The recovery is happening in the
U.S. and should continue through 1993. The
U.S. recovery, after such a long period of
cyclical decline, opens up many new invest-
ment opportunities. Indeed on a worldwide
basis, the U.S. may be one of the most
attractive markets in 1993. We are seeing
excellent opportunities in industries that have
been depressed for years.
Many American companies are prospering
through this slow growth period, increasing
earnings, dividends, and cash flow. One
reason is severe cost cutting. Another is
global growth At Roxbury, we have identi-
fied numerous strong, growing companies.
We are striving to keep risk levels low by
investing in fundamentally strong companies
selling at reasonable price-earnings multi-
ples. The long term outlook continues to be
good for equities. Capitalism and consumer-
ism are alive, well, and growing throughout
the world Corporate cash flow is improv-
ing, and there is plenty of liquidity for
investment in financial assets, especially
equities, as the bond and real estate sectors
look less attractive.
Sometime during 1993 the German Central
Bank, which inflated its currency during the
one for one exchange of West German
Marks for East German Marks, should ease
its tight credit stance and begin a period of
European economic recovery.
• Raxbury's Investment Style
Economic factors change over time and so
do the fortunes of leading companies.
Roxbuiy's investment style is to identify
those very good companies that are being
favored by important economic trends and
invest m them if they represent good value
We keep our average price-to-eamings ratio
relatively low, usually below that of the
market, but we invest in companies that are
growing faster than the market. The combi-
nation of better quality stocks, lower valua-
tions, and above average growth has given
us a lower risk and consistent performance
over time.
We combine these investment principles
with fundamental research, a strong sell
discipline, and individual attention to each
client portfolio.
There will be times when we underperform
• the market, particularly when the market's
emphasis is on areas we consider too specu-
lative or risky for us. However, we will
change with the times when necessary,
taking our profits, or losses, to reinvest in
more promising areas.
We have been called both growth managers
and value managers. We think that a good
investor should look for both growth and
value at all times. Because we invest in
large cap stocks, small to medium cap, and
special situations we have been described as
a core -type manager, a role which many of
our clients have assigned to us.
News At RaxbUQV C®is
1. Roxbury will hold a one day Investment
Seminar for its clients on Friday, March
12, 1993. The place, as before, will be the
Bel Air Hotel on Stone Canyon in West Los
• Angeles. The time will be 8:00 am until
2:00 p.m. with a continental breakfast and
luncheon served.
2. Brian Beh, formerly a Vice President of
Kemper Securities in Chicago, joined
Roxbury hi December 1992. Brian has
several years of industry experience as a
financial analyst and consultant. Bnan will
work in Portfolio Management and Client
Services.
3. Al Lockwood, a CPA formerly with Ernst
& Young, has joined our research staff,
underlining ow commitment to solid fimda-
mental research.
4. Dirk ten Gmtenhuis has left Roxbury
after one year to join Kum pn Securities as
a West Coast marketing director. We wish
him the very best and continue our longtime
friendship with him.
5. New Offices. As you already know, we
have moved our offices to 100 Wilshire
Blvd. in Santa Monica. We invite our
clients to visit us during the week of the
seminar or to schedule your next portfolio
review meeting at our offices.
ROXBURY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
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CLIENT INVESTMENT RECORD
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FOOD LION INC CLASS B
CLOROX CO
CLOROX CO
INTERNATIONAL INC
INTERNATIONAL INC
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MCI COMMUNICATIONS CORP
MERCK & COMPANY INCORPORATED
PEPSICO INCORPORATED
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1 SHEPHERD LANE
FAYETTEVILLE, AR 72703
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INVOICE
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, INC.
7510 MONTGOMERY, NE, STE 201
ALBUQUERQUE, NM 87109
January 20, 1993
Merrill Lynch
425 W. Capitol #200
Little Rock, AR 72201
Reference: CITY OF FAYETTEVILLE FIRE PENSION & RELIEF FUND
Acct. #563-96346
STATEMENT OF MANAGEMENT FEES:
For the period from October 01, 1992 through December 31, 1992
Portfolio Valuation as of 12-31-92 $ 2,747,683.08 *
$ 2,747,683.08 @ 0.1375% 1 $ 3,778.07
Quarterly Management Fee $ 3,778.07
•
TOTAL DUE AND PAYABLE
ALL INVOICES ARE DUE UPON RECEIPT. TO INSURE PROPER CREDIT,
PLEASE INDICATE ACCOUNT NAME ON CHECK.
•
$ 3,778.07
* Portfolio Value used for fee computation has been reduced by
accruals amounting to $15,946.30.
Fire Pension
Agenda Items
For
1-28-93