HomeMy WebLinkAbout1992-07-30 - Agendas - Final•
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Fire Pension
Agenda Items
For
7/30/92
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INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO MANAGERS
NM CAPITAL MANAGEMENT. INC.
MEMBER INVESTMENT COUNSEL ASSOC. OF AMERICA
INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE
Average Annualized Return Through
June 301 1992
6 Mos. 92 1 Yr. 3 Yrs.7 Yrs• 10 Yrs.
NMCM Equity 2.07% 15.54% 13.04% 14.04% 19.64%
NMCM Balanced 2.30 14.70 10.21 11.59 16.64
NMCM Fixed 2.58 14.83 10.98 10.51 13.34
S & P 500 <0.68> 13.40 12.38 15.27 18.42
GOVT/CORP 3.01 13.16 10.48 10.12 12.23
•
BOND INDEX
BAL INDEX 0.68 14.15 11.03 12.94 16.13
f
Performance Notes:
(a) Represents median returns selected from those accounts under management for a full quarter (1979-1986) and for
two full quarters (1987-1988). For 1988, NMCM increased the minimum account to $200,000 as disclosed to the S.E.C.
in Form ADV, II. Correspondingly, returns represent accounts with 5200.000 in equities.
(b) Represents the median quarterly returns compounded for the periods indicated (pre-tax).
(c) Represents a time -weighted measure of percent change in the total market value after considering the effect of
additions and withdrawals of capital.
(d) Gives effect to dividend income and interest income and the deduction of brokerage commission, but does not give
effect to management fees or other expenses. The investment advisory fees charged are described in Part 11 of
NMCM's Form ADV.
The following figures reflect the deduction of investment advisory fees actually charged the median accounts for 1990 and after. Prior to
1990, performance figures reflect the deduction of a "model" advisory fee. Six months 1992: Equity 1.51%; Balanced 1.69%; Fixed 2.25%.
One year ended June 30, 1992: Equity 14.42%; Balanced 1354%; Fixed 1190%. Three years ended June 30, 1992: Equity 9.48%; Balanced
9.24%; Fixed 10 10%. Seven years ended June 30, 1992: Equity 12.99%; Balanced 10.55%: Fixed 9.83%. Ten years ended June 30, 1992:
Equity 18.54%; Balanced 15.55%; Fixed 12.68%.
Because the stock market is influenced by a variety of changing conditions, this ten year period may not be representative of future
conditions. Therefore, past results are not a guarantee of future results or trends.
NOTE Consultants presenting "gross" performance to a client should advise him of the above disclosures.
7510 MONTGOMERY NE. SUITE #201 • ALBUQUERQUE. NM 07109 1500 • [5051 BBB -9500 FAX 15051 BBB -0874
NM Capital Management, Inc.
Quarterly Investment Comment
• Third Quarter 1992
•
•
114
•
THIRD QUARTER 1992 REVIEW
Since mid-January '92, the S&P 500 has
traded in a relatively narrow range --
between 400 and 420. For the quarter, the
stock index returned 3.2%, including
dividends, and only 2.4% year-to-date.
Considering the disappointing economy,
election uncertainty, and the 30% gain in the
stock index last year, this year's results are
not surprising.
Bond returns were about equal to the stock
returns for the quarter. Government
Corporate bond indices retumed 3.0-3.5% for
the three months. For the nine months,
bond returns were 6% -- about twice as
much as for stocks.
Although stock market returns have been
meager in 1992, the common stock
performance of NMCM clients has been
better than most -- generally close to the
broad market index for the third quarter
and outperforming the index year-to-date.
Our intermediate maturity bond strategy has
also performed well for the quarter and year.
Balanced portfolios have performed the
best, reflecting the stronger performance
of bonds compared to stocks in 1992.
ECONOMY AND INVESTMENT
OUTLOOK
The sharp decline in short term interest rates
in early July, signalled by the Federal
Reserve lowering the discount rate to 3%,
has not resulted in a noticeable improvement
in the economy. In our opinion, recovery is
not dead but it is anemic and below general
expectations, as recent economic indicators
continue mixed.
Currently, we sense that investor
perceptions are much too pessimistic
about economic prospects. Many
economists have pointed to high consumer,
corporate and government debt as major
impediments to a faster economic recovery.
The significant decline in interest rates over
the last two years plus major debt reduction
has reduced this burden. Regulatory
pressure on banks has also been blamed for
slow economic growth. After several years
of bolstering capital and improving the
quality of loan portfolios, many banks will
return to the lending business. The next up
cycle, however, may not require the degree
of bank financing as in the past. Modern
inventory management, alternative non-bank
sources of funds (including the equity
market) and a more savings -conscious
population may reduce the need for bank
credit. If borrowers continue to be more
mindful of their credit exposure, the current
recovery cycle will likely last longer and be
less volatile and inflationary than in the past.
Such an environment would be quite
favorable for the stock and bond markets.
The international currency markets have
received recent publicity regarding their
effect on the stock and bond markets.
Investors now seem to perceive that
additional efforts by the Fed to lower
interest rates may be inhibited by the
negative effect on the dollar in foreign
exchange markets. The argument goes that
if the Fed is restrained from a further
lowering of interest rates, then the sluggish
economy may continue. The leading culprit
in this analysis is high German interest rates
which compete with relatively low U.S.
rates. We believe, in time, Germany will
lower its interest rates and this will
encourttge economic recovery in Europe and
will also aid U.S. economic growth. In the
irieantirne, if U.S. growth remains sluggish,
the Fed will most likely further reduce
short-term U.S. interest rates to get the
economy moving despite potential dollar
weakness.
We are a few weeks away from the
Presidential elections. Uncertainty abounds
as Clinton now appears to be the front-
runner, Perot has re-entered as the spoiler,
and Bush seems overwhelmed with blame
for the stagnant economy. The adage that
the "people vote their pocketbooks" does not
bode well for Bush's re-election. But in the
Presidential election, 30 days is a long time
and no one appears to be a shoe -in.
In our view, no matter who wins the
election, the present economy is in the
process of correcting itself. Individuals and
corporations are reliquifying, moderating
consumption in favor of savings.
Speculative excesses are minimal. U.S.
corporations in recent years have become
more focused and have restructured to
increase profitability in a world of major
market expansion (Russia, China, Eastern
Europe). The North American Free Trade
Agreement is an example of economic
integration which will also enhance long-
term growth.
EQUITY STRATEGY
A review of the diversification in our
equity portfohos indicates our emphasis
on stocks we broadly classify as Capital
Goods. The slow growth and recession
environment of the last four years has tended
to keep these cyclical manufacturing stocks
generally out of favor. One development
that may help capital goods producers is the
trend toward a low cost of capital. Lower
interest rates and the improved
environment for equity financing should
influence corporations to spend more
money modernizing plants and equipment.
Many companies wanting to participate in
the expanding competitive world markets
need to increase their manufacturing
capabilities. The earnings growth of the
machinery and technology suppliers is
expected to improve substantially over the
next few years.
Equity Focus Comment
In 1902, three members of the DuPont
family completed one of the more rewarding
investment transactions in history when they
acquired control of the assets of the already
formidable DuPont Corporation for $12
million. This really was an admirable
accomplishment in that the stated assets of
the company at that time were valued at $24
million. The "values" weren't hidden. No
special knowledge beyond access to the
accounting records was required. The
selling family members and their advisors
had simply failed to "look" at the accounting
ledgers prior to closing the deal. As
unbelievable as this 1902 investment coup
was, it is even more unbelievable that in
1992, similar investment opportunities
persist for precisely the same reason --
failure to "look".
One overlooked value in today's equity
market appears to be the common shares
of Rockwell International (ROK - which
we began purchasing in June). Dismissed by
the consensus as a defense based
conglomerate, Wall Street pundits rationalize
that the current 40% discount to the S&P
500 on current earnings and the 30%
discount on book value are justified, and
they remain "neutral" on the shares. A
closer "look" might lead one to a
substantially different conclusion.
One of Rockwell's operating segments,
"Electronics", harbors the operating assets of
the Allen-Bradley Company. Advances in
the integration of telecommunications,
software, and digital computation are
increasingly demanding comparable advances
• on the factory floor. In orderto remain
competitive, manufacturers must increasingly
integrate three contradictory aspects of the
manufacturing process into a seamless flow
-- speed, flexibility, and unprecedented
levels of accuracy. Each are individually
difficult to achieve; simultaneous, sustained
achievement would be virtually impossible
without advanced electronic controls.
Today, Allen-Bradley produces the requisite
electronic controllers in a Milwaukee plant
which itself serves as a world class
prototype for the highest standards of
applied flexible manufactunng technology.
The plant can turn out • over a hundred
different designs in lot sizes as small as one,
while reducing total manufacturing time
from weeks to hours. Consequently, Allen-
Bradley has regained over 40% of the
U.S. controller market, previously ceded
to the Germans. Management is confident
in achieving their goal of doubling their
• share of world markets over the next four to
five years. As a stand-alone company,
Allen-Bradley would probably be valued at
a market multiple or more. Hidden within
Rockwell, the company's eamings are
accorded a 50% discount to the average
market multiple.
Over the next few years the hidden potential
of Allen-Bradley, augmented by the cyclical
earnings leverage inherent in Rockwell's
Automotive/Heavy Truck division and the
technological potential in the
Telecommunications segment, is likely to
become increasingly obvious at ROK's
bottom line. Increased earnings power
(conservatively estimated at between
$3.50-$4.00) accorded a blended
conglomerate discount to the averages,
should reward today's investor with well -
above -average annualized returns over a
two to four year holding period. An
• attractive dividend yield (currently around
3.5%) and the return enhancing benefit of an
ongoing corporate share repurchase program
add to the investment attraction of the
shares.
While perhaps not as dramatic or
immediately obvious as the DuPont coup, we
at NMCM believe that today's equity
markets still provide equally rewarding
investment opportunities. We will
continue to strive to be among those astute
and persistent "value" oriented investors who
are willing and able to "look" for, recognize,
and capitalize on such opportunities for the
benefit of our clients' portfolios.
FIXED INCOME STRATEGY
Our Second Quarter Comment pointed out the
low level of short term interest rates (the
lowest since the early 1960s) and the
historically wide yield spread between 2 -year
and 30 -year Treasuries. These conditions
persist. In fact, at September 30, 6 -month
Treasury Bills yielded less than 3%, and
30 -year bonds yielded 7.38%, which is an
even wider spread than three months ago.
We continue to believe the steep yield curve
is temporary and that short rates are likely to
rise as the economy strengthens. Long-term
rates, on the other hand, could ease somewhat
further as inflation expectations moderate.
The intermediate sector of the Treasury
market (7 to 10 -year maturities), which has
been our focus in fixed income portfolios,
continues to perform well. The 7 -year
Treasury note has declined from a yield of
7.2% a year ago to 5.9%, while long-term
Treasury yields declined over the past year
from 7.8% to 7.4%. The dramatic decline
in intermediate bond rates compared to
long bond rates has favorably influenced
our bond returns in each of the last four
quarters. After two years of declining
interest rates, we are cautious with regard
to the 1993 outlook. We believe the
risk/reward trade-offs still favor
intermediate bonds.
flVeison's Fourth Annual Survey April 15, 1991
"The 100 best
money managers
you can hire"
Results of the 4th Annual Survey of Investment
Managers conducted by Nelson Publications and
the Nelson Investment Manager Database
NELSON PUBLICATIONS
1 Gateway Plaza, Port Chester NY 10573, 914 937-8400
1
•
•
•
NELSON'S 25 TOP -PERFORMING INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT FIRMS
Portfolio Category:
Firm Size:
Time Period Ranked:
Balanced Portfolios
Mid -Size Firms ($200 MI- $1Bi1. Managed)
10 -Year Annualized Rate of Return
Lists in IermWingarder thehithett rate dram reported lnjthe 10wasetsoribisjnffol10
attegar} firm size grouped time period. Mmsenfa to Section 2 - Manager file, for the sour=
of performance data presented by each firm (data itan 78).
Firm (Location) / Performance Composite
BALANCED
MID-SIZE FIRMS
10 -YR ANNUALIZED
1990 3 Yr. 5 Yr. 10 Yr.
Caldwell & Orkin Inc (Atlanta,GA)
All taxab4e and tax-exempt discretionary balanced portfolios.
Dane, Falb, Stone & Company (Boston, MA)
All balanced accounts ...
Rittenhouse Financial Services (Pldladelphia, PA)
Institutional disaetionary accounts
Spare,
All Trg_..._
Spa ee Kaa Lut &Misch accounts � Francisco, CA)
fully narygreater than $SMM
Sound Shore Management, Inc. (Greenwich, CI)
All balanced accounts, including cash reserves.
Alpine Capital Management (Dene, CO)
Amounts over $100p00 under management over 6 months
NMSapeasabovebutwit atleat10*IgNIS
Sameuabove6buutwithatleistl0 iabonds atbeginning ofperiod.
Investment Counselors Inc. (St. Louis, MO)
AU discretionary tax-exempt balanced accounts
Capstone Asset Management Co. (Houston, TX)
50% Core Growth/50% Fixed Income - Composite of all accounts in this style .
Capstone Asset Management Co. (Houston, TX)
30% Core Growth/70% Fixed Income - Composite of all accounts in this style
Regent Investor Services (White Plains, NY)
Balanced Accounts
Wilson, Kemp & Associates, Inc (Detroit MI)
Composite of balanced accounts
Cowen Asset Management (New York, NY)
All Tax Exempt Accounts > s500,0o0
James Investment Research (Alpha, 011)
Arithmetic average of all ret funds under management reviewed yearly by
Deloitte Touche.
Fiduciary Management Inc. (Milwaukee, WI)
60/40 weighting of EMI Equity and Fixed Income Composites
Towneley Capital Management (New York NY)
Institutional Balancedd
Montag & Caldwell Inc (Atlanta, GA)
Balanced Funds: All discretionary balanced employee benefit plans with
values over Si million
Campbell Reed Conner & Birdwell (Los Angeles, CA)
Balanced: Average of aU institutional accounts
Winrich Capital Management (Lake Forest, CA)
Balanced composite.
Stratton ManagementCo. (Plymouth Meeting, PA)
Largest, fuy discretionary, tax advantaged, institutional accounts.
Campbell, Newman, Pottinger & Associates (Mequon, WI)
All fully -discretionary accounts
George D. Bjurman & Associates (Los Angeles, CA)
Fully Discretionary Accounts
Keystone Investment Management Corp. (Boston, MA)
All discretionary, tax-exempt, employee -benefit accounts greater than 55
million.
Chelsea Management Co. (Los Angeles, CA)
Internal compilation; based on cumulative total of all accounts.
Financial Counselors Inc. (Kansas City, MO)
Dollar weighted average of tax-exempt portfolios over $5 million_
3.66% 13.84x 1359%
2.39 -1232 1330
3.90 15.03 1358
4.66 12.10 12.04
- 1.30 11.88 11.13
- 2.40 11.01 12.89
0.55 10.07 9.54
2.70 14.89 12.74
3.46 12.45 12.89
4.76 11.24 12.25
4.40 12.43 12.48
2.72 11.87 11.63
5.49 8.70 10.03
1.50 12.76
- 0.10 11.28
0.04 8.74
4.70 12.19
6.50 13.83
0.97 9.48
-3.92 10.19
6.74 14.09
8.28 13.36
0.30 10.06
-0.10 11.21
5.11 11.47
12.90
9.03
8.88
11.89
12.93
9.45
9.39
13.31
1231
1102
11.19
10.53
16.99%
16.74
16.73
15.75
1534
15.16
15.13
15.11
14.79
14.72
1454
1450
14.32
14.19
14.09
14.00
13.90
13.76
13.62
1335
13.49
13.39
1332
13.30
13.22
Source: Nelsons Investment Manager ,7sevhcs; 0 1991 Nelson Publieations, Pod Chester. N.Y. 10573
29
r
PERSONAL INVESTING
•
THE CASE FOR VALUE
INVESTING NOW _.
■ Ever since the 1987 crash, growth stocks
have been beating the tail off value plays,
and managers who specialize in growth -
stock investing are standing on top of the
performance hill (see chart). But lately an
increasing number of market seers say that
value's day is about to return.
Value investors are used to long slumps
between winnings. They tend to buy out -of -
favor shares, typically those selling with
high dividend yields or at low price/earn-
ings multiples. Growth stock investors, on
the other hand, will often pay a premium
for companies that are expected to increase
earnings much faster than average. They
believe that high growth will more than
make up for the higher price.
Both growth and value investing have ar-
dent disciples, who insist their methods are
the only strategies that can produce superi-
or results. In fact, both can, but seldom in
the same period. During much of the 1980s,
value investing worked well as raiders went
hunting for undervalued companies to buy
and break up. Highflying healthy compa-
nies—growth stocks—were ignored.
After the crash of 1987, the relative per-
formance of value stocks began to slip. The
performance tables were completely turned
in 1989, when the junk bond market ran
into trouble and the takeover boom came
to an end. According to Performance Eval-
uation Services, a Dallas fund -tracking ser-
vice, growth stock mutual funds have out-
performed value funds, 46.5% to 20.1%,
since June 1989.
Now value investing may be coming back
into vogue. Research by Performance Ana-
lytics, a Chicago investment consulting
firm, shows that the recent outperformance
by growth stock managers and underper-
ARE VALUE STOCKS
READY TO RISE AGAIN? $
Total return'
11/1/87 to 9/30/91 $
118%
$ 92%
76%
S&P
500'
$
$
Growth I Value 6
investors � investors
•Median performance of investment managers.
1
Value stocks we nowa steal, analysts say.
formance by value managers has been too
extreme to last."Never in the past 14 years
has growth done so well and value done so
poorly," says Robert Moseson, president of
the firm.
The quarter that ended September 30
was the worst of the past 55 quarters for
value -oriented money managers. By con-
trast, managers of funds investing in growth
stocks with large capitalizations posted bet-
ter numbers in only three of the last 55
quarters. Whenever the results are that di-
vergent, a performance flip-flop is mevita-.
ble, says Moseson: "I think we will be hear-
ing the swan song of growth stocks within
the next two quarters."
Roger Hertog, who heads Sanford C.
Bernstein's $16.5 billion asset management
group, which is known for its strict adher-
ence to value investing, agrees. According
to the firm's analysis, value stocks are
cheaper today than at any time in the 1980s.
"There is plenty of work for the value in-
vestor to do right now,' he says. "We ex-
pect to begin a significant positive cycle for
undervalued stocks."
•
•
•
•
A bird in the hand was worth less
.... Value investors; who focuson
companies that have unrecognized or
underpriced assets, got creamed by in-
vestors who focus on firms' prospects for
earnings growth. A word of - warning
from A. Michael Lipper: Gaps like those
atthe rightten&to,reverse..theilges.
Growth Beats Vadat
LEAR Nigh -Growth Rate Index Vs, if
LEAR Low -Priced Value Index ...
250 aRMAM1077:.
240 11111111111F1
230 graWnsint
..
220
210
200
100
180
170
160
150
140
DJ F M.A MJ J A S_O.$o,w- t. -,j\
,-, �p.rl:p
Source: Li perMelrpcal Services
Money Managers:
Different methods, similar results
Managers are grouped in the following table according to their own professed styles.
Returns, through the first quarter of 1991, are net of commissions but do not reflect management
fees.
Style
1 Year
5 Years 10 Years
Growth
Small -cap growth
Value
Large cap
Small cap
Contranan
Income
19.42%
24.21
11.39
14.36
15.56
9.39
10.10
13.77%
13.92
12.10
13.02
12.44
11.34
12.10
Source: Plan Sponsor Network, Eff on Enterprises; Institutional Investor
16.43%
16.81
16.73
16.62
16.73
16.52
16.81
magazine.
•
Int